https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rwg8O26iR20qg7Vmsm6NUaWFbPRloQ0EeTsWp1v2R2A/pubhtml
Forecast Error
Time Series Forecasting
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VLPaN0br5BksPfkRsylH8D2jQHPIfvH2Um1xPtSqVGo/pubhtml
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Residuals
Define dollars spend on advertising as x asix and total sales as y asix.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19Awy1HECgyfQHLXN87Vs9PEjVMGZX4JnllhmFRQLwxI/pubhtml
Simple Regression Line
For 12.8(p481)
Define dollars spend on advertising as x asix and total sales as y asix.
| X | Y | X^2 | X*Y | N |
| 12.5 | 148 | 156.25 | 1850 | 8 |
| 3.7 | 55 | 13.69 | 203.5 | |
| 21.6 | 338 | 466.56 | 7300.8 | |
| 60 | 994 | 3600 | 59640 | |
| 37.6 | 541 | 1413.76 | 20341.6 | |
| 61 | 89 | 3721 | 5429 | |
| 16.8 | 126 | 282.24 | 2116.8 | |
| 41.2 | 379 | 1697.44 | 15614.8 | |
| 254.4 | 2670 | 11350.94 | 112496.5 | |
| SSxy | 27590.5 | |||
| SSxx | 3261.02 | |||
| b1 | 8.460696347 | |||
| b0 | 64.69985618 |
So,the equation of the simple regression line to predict sales from advertising expenditures is Y=64.7+8.46*Y
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Equation of the regression line of GDP and Fertility.
Define Total Fertility Rate as X asix and GDP Per Capita as Y asix.
| X | Y | X^2 | X*Y | N |
| 2.10 | 9.7 | 4.41 | 20.37 | 10 |
| 5.97 | 1.5 | 35.6409 | 8.955 | |
| 1.59 | 37.3 | 2.5281 | 59.307 | |
| 1.30 | 7.4 | 1.69 | 9.62 | |
| 1.84 | 16.6 | 3.3856 | 30.544 | |
| 2.01 | 52.8 | 4.0401 | 106.128 | |
| 1.80 | 3.8 | 3.24 | 6.84 | |
| 2.35 | 13.6 | 5.5225 | 31.96 | |
| 0.85 | 4.1 | 0.7225 | 3.485 | |
| 4.09 | 2.5 | 16.7281 | 10.225 | |
| 23.90 | 149.3 | 77.9078 | 287.434 | |
| SSxy | -69.393 | |||
| SSxx | 20.7868 | |||
| b1 | -3.338320473 | |||
| b0 | 22.90858593 |
So,the equation of the simple regression line to Total Fertility Rate from GDP Per Capita is Y=22.9-3.34*X
Pearson Correlation Coefficient For Fertility-GDP data
I difine Total Fertility Rate as X and GDP Per Capita as Y.And calculate the Pearson Correlation Coefficient for it.
R is about -0.299.So Fertility Rate is low negative correlation to the GDP Per Capita.
| X | Y | X^2 | Y^2 | X*Y | N | |
| 1 | 2.10 | 9.7 | 4.41 | 94.09 | 20.37 | 10 |
| 2 | 5.97 | 1.5 | 35.6409 | 2.25 | 8.955 | |
| 3 | 1.59 | 37.3 | 2.5281 | 1391.29 | 59.307 | |
| 4 | 1.30 | 7.4 | 1.69 | 54.76 | 9.62 | |
| 5 | 1.84 | 16.6 | 3.3856 | 275.56 | 30.544 | |
| 6 | 2.01 | 52.8 | 4.0401 | 2787.84 | 106.128 | |
| 7 | 1.80 | 3.8 | 3.24 | 14.44 | 6.84 | |
| 8 | 2.35 | 13.6 | 5.5225 | 184.96 | 31.96 | |
| 9 | 0.85 | 4.1 | 0.7225 | 16.81 | 3.485 | |
| 10 | 4.09 | 2.5 | 16.7281 | 6.25 | 10.225 | |
| SUM | 23.90 | 149.3 | 77.9078 | 4828.25 | 287.434 | |
| R NUMERATOR | -69.393 | |||||
| R DENOMINATION | 232.4415439 | |||||
| R | -0.2985395761 |
Scatter Plot of Fertility and GDP
I record 10 countries’ Total Fertility rate and GDP-Per Capita from CIA World Factbook’s Fertility-GDP data .
I make a scatter plot by these data.Plot Fertility on the x-axis and GDP on the y-axis.
DATA of 10 Countries
| Country | GDP Per Capita | Total Fertility Rate |
| Turkmenistan | 9.7 | 2.10 |
| Uganda | 1.5 | 5.97 |
| UK | 37.3 | 1.59 |
| Ukraine | 7.4 | 1.30 |
| Uruguay | 16.6 | 1.84 |
| US | 52.8 | 2.01 |
| Uzbekistan | 3.8 | 1.80 |
| Venezuela | 13.6 | 2.35 |
| Vietnam | 4.1 | 0.85 |
| Yemen | 2.5 | 4.09 |
Scatter Plot

